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What is Progetto Olanda 2.0

Football statistics and predictions, checked against results

Progetto Olanda 2.0 (or just Progetto Olanda) is a free football statistics site. For every upcoming match it estimates how many corners, goals, cards and fouls there will be in total, and how many each team will make. The estimate is set against the bookmaker's Over/Under line, and after the match every prediction is compared with what actually happened.

How an estimate is made

The model starts from matches already played: for each team it measures how much it produces and concedes, at home and away, giving more weight to recent games. A match's expected total combines one team's attack with the other's defence, and the other way round. From that total the site works out the chance of going over every line (for example "over 9.5 corners") and, where there is a price, whether that price pays more than the chance justifies.

The data goes back to the 2014/2015 season. The model and its choices were measured on tens of thousands of matches, and the site publishes a backtest: how often the prediction was right, league by league.

What is on the site

• Predictions by league: expected total and Over/Under chances for every match, the table, results and a page for every team.
• Hot Matches: the matches with the highest expected total, or the prices with the most value, across every league at once.
• Market Moves: how prices move from opening to close.
• Winning Factor: the teams that beat a line of your choosing most often.
• Slip Finder: betting slips built to the rules you set, bonuses included.

Leagues covered

• Italy: Serie A, Serie B
• England: Premier League, Championship
• Spain: La Liga, LaLiga 2
• Germany: Bundesliga, 2. Bundesliga
• France: Ligue 1, Ligue 2
• Netherlands: Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie
• Portugal: Liga Portugal
• Belgium: Jupiler League
• Scotland: Premiership
• Turkey: Süper Lig
• Norway: Eliteserien
• Brazil: Série A

Frequently asked questions

Does Progetto Olanda 2.0 take bets?

No. The site publishes statistics and estimates for information: it neither takes nor handles bets, and it is not meant for anyone under 18.

Is it free?

Yes. An account is optional and only saves your slips and favourite leagues.

Does it predict who wins?

No: it estimates the total of a statistic, such as corners or fouls. And no estimate is a certainty, which is why every prediction is checked and the record is public.

Who runs it?

An independent project based in Pisa, Italy. Contact: info@progettoolanda.it. See also the privacy policy and terms.